{"id":28023,"date":"2024-06-14T00:27:27","date_gmt":"2024-06-14T00:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/questions\/evaluating-the-political-economic-risks-in-the-oil-industry-of-china-in-the-next-two-to-three-decades-under-the-transition-to-decarbonization\/"},"modified":"2024-06-14T00:27:27","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T00:27:27","slug":"evaluating-the-political-economic-risks-in-the-oil-industry-of-china-in-the-next-two-to-three-decades-under-the-transition-to-decarbonization","status":"publish","type":"questions","link":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/questions\/evaluating-the-political-economic-risks-in-the-oil-industry-of-china-in-the-next-two-to-three-decades-under-the-transition-to-decarbonization\/","title":{"rendered":"evaluating the political\/economic risks in the oil industry of China in the next two to three decades under the transition to decarbonization."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"margin: 12px 0px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">You are a senior consultant working for the Eurasia Group, one of the top international political\/economic risk consulting firms. You have to<span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span><u style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">write a memo<\/u><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span>evaluating the political\/economic risks in the oil industry of China<span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span>in the next two to three decades under the transition to decarbonization. You should address the questions with two horizons: 2035 and 2050.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">You can assume the following likely consequences of the transition.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 25px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">Oil demand will peak in the next decade and then will decrease to between 60 and 80 mbpd by 2050.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">Natural gas demand will peak more than a decade later than oil and then will decrease to between 2000 and 4000 bcm by 2050.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">Rents in oil\/gas production will have a declining trend but with higher volatility than in the past.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">Eventually, there will be a significant carbon tax (or equivalent policy) on upstream emissions per barrel. The tax can be offset by emissions reductions in the upstream activities, e.g., carbon capture.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">Energy security\/geopolitical concerns will continue to be relevant. &nbsp;<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">In your memo, you must address:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 25px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">How would the oil\/gas industry fare in China during the energy transition? How is oil and gas policy likely to evolve (e.g., NOC, taxes, contracts, expropriation, resource nationalism, energy subsidies, etc.)? How would political risks evolve? What oil\/gas policy recommendations would you give to Chinese government?<span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">(50 points)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><\/strong><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">How would the China\u2019s economy be affected by the transition (e.g., volatility, Dutch disease, resource obsolescence, etc.)? How would resource wealth management (savings, stabilization, investment, diversification) be affected? What would be your recommendations for resource wealth management in your country, under the transition?<span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">(30 points)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><\/strong><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">What could be the political impact of the energy transition on democracy\/authoritarianism, institutions, and violence?<span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">(20 points)<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"margin: 12px 0px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><strong style=\"font-weight: bold; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">Criteria for grading:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul style=\"margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 25px; cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">The answer should consider the characteristics of the oil\/gas sector in general (rents, sunk costs, risk stage, etc.) and in the country you are analyzing (e.g., the size and type of hydrocarbon reserves and the reservoirs characteristics). Also, you should consider the political, economic, institutional, regulatory, fiscal, and contractual environment currently in place, as well the level of resource dependence.<\/li>\n<li style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\"><u style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">You should apply the concepts studied in class and use the literature assigned<\/u><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span>(you do not need to make references but remember<span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span><u style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">do not copy\/paste or plagiarize!).<\/u><span style=\"cursor: auto; color: inherit;\">&nbsp;<\/span>You will be evaluated on your understanding of the theory and capacity to use it in a practical case, your knowledge of the cases, and your analytical abilities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You are a senior consultant working for the Eurasia Group, one of the top international political\/economic risk consulting firms. You have to&nbsp;write a memo&nbsp;evaluating the political\/economic risks in the oil industry of China&nbsp;in the next two to three decades under the transition to decarbonization. You should address the questions with two horizons: 2035 and 2050. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":[],"disciplines":[43],"paper_types":[],"tagged":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/questions\/28023"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/questions"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/questions"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/questions\/28023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"disciplines","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/disciplines?post=28023"},{"taxonomy":"paper_types","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/paper_types?post=28023"},{"taxonomy":"tagged","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.writemyessays.app\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tagged?post=28023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}