Analyse a successful or unsuccessful referendum campaign. Case Study: Scottish independence referendum 2014

Introduction

  • Briefly introduce the referendum: date, question, and the result.
  • State its significance for UK constitutional politics.
  • Present thesis: explore both campaign strategy and legacy to assess “success.”

1. Context and Background

  • Historical background of Scottish nationalism and devolution.
  • The rise of the SNP and the political climate in 2014.
  • Importance of this referendum in UK political history.

2. Campaign Strategies

Yes Scotland:

  • Positive, civic nationalist tone — emphasized fairness, democracy, and Scottish control over policy.
  • Focus on progressive values and rejection of austerity.
  • Weaknesses: lack of clarity on currency, EU membership, and economic projections (especially over oil).

Better Together:

  • Focused on risks of leaving — economic instability, pensions, loss of influence.
  • Criticised as negative but effective in swaying undecided voters.
  • Supported by UK-wide elites and most of the media.

3. Role of Media, Political Elites, and “The Vow”

  • Most newspapers backed the Union — alleged media bias.
  • UK leaders made last-minute promises for more devolved powers (“The Vow”) — helped secure some undecided voters.
  • Trust issues and whether these promises were fulfilled post-referendum.

4. Civic Engagement and Legacy

  • Turnout: 84.6% — massive public involvement, especially among youth (16–17-year-olds voted for the first time).
  • Political awakening in Scotland — surge in SNP membership post-referendum.
  • Although the “Yes” campaign lost, it reshaped Scottish politics and kept independence on the agenda — intensified after Brexit (2016).

5. Was the Campaign a Success or Failure?

  • Failure in goal: independence was not achieved.
  • Success in impact: shifted political discourse, sustained civic nationalism, and influenced future referendums.
  • Demonstrates how referendum “success” is not only measured by the vote outcome.

Conclusion

  • Summarise key findings: campaign was strategically flawed but powerful in mobilisation and political legacy.
  • Reflect on what this case tells us about referendum campaigns in general: emotional appeals, uncertainty, elite influence, and long-term change.
  • Possible link to future referendums , Brexit as a contrast)

references:

  • Tierney, Stephen (2015). “The Scottish Independence Referendum: A Model of Good Practice in Direct Democracy?”International Journal of Constitutional Law.
  • Henderson, Ailsa, et al. (2016). “Scottish Public Opinion and the Independence Referendum: What Did We Learn?”Political Insight.
  • Johns, Robert & Mitchell, James (2016). “Takeover, Capture, or Merger? Scottish Party Membership after the Independence Referendum”Political Studies Review.
  • Tierney, S. (2015). “The Scottish Independence Referendum: A Model of Good Practice in Direct Democracy?”International Journal of Constitutional Law, 13(2), pp. 622–638.
  • Hassan, G. (2014). “After the Referendum: The Future of Scottish Politics.” Renewal: A Journal of Social Democracy, 22(3/4), pp. 48–56.
  • Johns, R., Mitchell, J., Denver, D., & Carman, C. (2013). “Constitution or Competence? The SNP’s Re-election in 2011.” Political Studies, 61(1), pp. 158–178.
  • Henderson, A., Jeffery, C., & Liñeira, R. (2016). “National Identity or National Interest: Scottish Voters and the Constitutional Question.” Scottish Affairs, 25(2), pp. 170–192.
  • Liñeira, R. & Henderson, A. (2015). “National Identity and Attitudes to Independence.” In: Scotland’s Referendum and the Media: National and International Perspectives (edited volume

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